The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market (PDF)

T h e G r o w i n g I m p o r t a n c e o f S o c i a l S k i l l s i n t h e La b o r Ma r k e t D a v id J. D e ming Ha r v a r d Univ e r s it y a nd NB E R ∗ Aug us t 2 0 1 5 A b s t r ac t T h e s l ow gr ow t h of h i gh - p ay i n g j ob s i n t h e U. S . s i n c e 2000 an d r ap i d ad v an c e s i n c om p u t e r t e c h n ol ogy h av e s p ar k e d f e ar s t h at h u m an l ab or w i l l e v e n t u al l y b e r e n d e r e d ob s ol e t e . Ye t w h i l e c om p u t e r s p e r f or m c ogn i t i v e t as k s of r ap i d l y i n c r e as i n g c om p l e x i t y , s i m p l e h u m an i n t e r ac t i on h as p r ov e n d i ffi c u l t t o au t om at e . I n t h i s p ap e r , I s h ow t h at t h e l ab or m ar k e t i n c r e as i n gl y r e w ar d s s o ci a l s ki l l s . S i n c e 1980, j ob s w i t h h i gh s oc i al s k i l l r e q u i r e m e n t s h av e e x p e r i e n c e d gr e at e r r e l at i v e gr ow t h t h r ou gh ou t t h e w age d i s t r i b u t i on . M or e ov e r , e m p l oy m e n t an d w age gr ow t h h as b e e n s t r on ge s t i n j ob s t h at r e q u i r e h i gh l e v e l s of bo t h c ogn i t i v e s k i l l an d s oc i al s k i l l . T o u n d e r s t an d t h e s e p at t e r n s , I d e v e l op a m od e l of t e am p r od u c t i on w h e r e w or k e r s “t r ad e t as k s ” t o e x p l oi t t h e i r c om p ar at i v e ad v an t age . I n t h e m od e l , s oc i al s k i l l s r e d u c e c oor d i n at i on c os t s , al l ow i n g w or k e r s t o s p e c i al i z e an d t r ad e m or e e ffi c i e n t l y . T h e m od e l ge n e r at e s p r e d i c t i on s ab ou t s or t i n g an d t h e r e l at i v e r e t u r n s t o s k i l l ac r os s oc c u p at i on s , w h i c h I t e s t an d c on fi r m u s i n g d at a f r om t h e NLS Y79. T h e f e m al e ad v an t age i n s oc i al s k i l l s m ay h av e p l ay e d s om e r ol e i n t h e n ar r ow i n g of ge n d e r gap s i n l ab or m ar k e t ou t c om e s s i n c e 1980. ∗ d av i d _d e m i n [email protected] gs e . h ar v ar d . e d u . T h an k s t o P ol An t r as , D av i d Au t or , Av i F e l l e r , Law r e n c e K at z , S an d y J e n c k s , R i c h ar d M u r n an e , D ou g S t ai ge r an d Low e l l T ay l or f or r e ad i n g e ar l y d r af t s of t h i s p ap e r an d f or p r ov i d i n g i n s i gh t f u l f e e d b ac k . T h an k s t o F e l i p e B ar r e r a- O s or i o, Am i t ab h C h an d r a, As i m K h w aj a, Al an M an n i n g, G u y M i c h ae l s , Lu k e M i r at r i x , T od d R oge r s , M ar t y W e s t an d s e m i n ar p ar t i c i p an t s at LS E an d P S E f or h e l p f u l c om m e n t s . O l i v i a C h i , M ad e l e i n e G e l b l u m , Lau r e n R e i s i g an d S t e p h e n Ye n p r ov i d e d s u p e r b r e s e ar c h as s i s t an c e . S p e c i al t h an k s t o D av i d Au t or an d B r e n d an P r i c e f or s h ar i n g t h e i r d at a an d p r ogr am s . E x t r a s p e c i al t h an k s t o Li s a K ah n an d C h r i s W al t e r s f or “t r ad i n g t as k s ” w i t h m e . Al l e r r or s ar e m y ow n . 1  “ W e can never sur vey our own sentiments and motives, we can never for m any judgment concer ning them; unless we r emove our selves, as it wer e, fr om our own natur al station, and endeavour to view them as at a cer tain distance fr om us. B ut we can do this in no other way than by endeavour ing to view them with the eyes of other people, or as other people ar e likely to view them.” - Ada m Smit h, The Theor y of M or al Sentiments ( 1 7 5 9 ) 1 Int r o duct i o n A v a s t lit e r a t ur e in e c o no mic s e x pla ins inc r e a s e s in t he r e t ur ns t o s k ill o v e r t he la s t s e v e r a l de c a de s a s a pr o duc t o f t he c o mple me nt a r it y be t w e e n t e c hno lo g y a nd hig h- s k ille d la bo r , o r skill-biased technological change ( SB T C ) ( K a t z a nd M ur phy 1 9 9 1 , B o und a nd Jo hns o n 1 9 9 2 , Juhn e t a l. 1 9 9 3 , M ur na ne e t a l. 1 9 9 5 , G r o g g e r a nd E ide 1 9 9 5 , He c k ma n a nd Vy t la c il 2 0 0 1 , T a be r 2 0 0 1 , Ac e mo g lu a nd Aut o r 2 0 1 1 ) . B e g inning in t he 1 9 9 0 s , t he la bo r ma r k e t “ ho llo w e d o ut ” a s c o mput e r s s ubs t it ut e d f o r la bo r in middle s k ill r o ut ine t a s k s a nd c o mple me nt e d hig h- s k ille d la bo r , a phe no me no n r e f e r r e d t o a s j o b po la r iz a t io n o r a lt e r na t iv e ly , r outine-biased technological change ( R B T C ) ( Aut o r e t a l. 2 0 0 3 , 2 0 0 6 , G o o s a nd M a nning 2 0 0 7 , Aut o r e t a l. 2 0 0 8 , Ac e mo g lu a nd Aut o r 2 0 1 1 , Aut o r a nd D o r n 2 0 1 3 , M ic ha e ls e t a l. 2 0 1 4 , G o o s e t a l. 2 0 1 4 , Ade r mo n a nd G us t a v s s o n 2 0 1 5 ) . Ho w e v e r , w hile R B T C implie s r is ing de ma nd f o r hig hly - s k ille d la bo r , t he r e ha s be e n lit t le o r no e mplo y me nt g r o w t h in hig h- pa y ing j o bs s inc e 2 0 0 0 ( Ac e mo g lu a nd Aut o r 2 0 1 1 , Aut o r a nd D o r n 2 0 1 3 , B e a udr y e t a l. 2 0 1 3 , 2 0 1 4 ) .1 B e a udr y e t a l. ( 2 0 1 3 ) a r g ue t ha t a “ g r e a t r e v e r s a l” in t he de ma nd f o r c o g nit iv e s k ill o c c ur r e d in t he U.S. la bo r ma r k e t a r o und 2 0 0 0 , a nd C a s t e x a nd D e c ht e r ( 2 0 1 4 ) find t ha t t he la bo r ma r k e t r e t ur n t o c o g nit iv e s k ill w a s s ubs t a nt ia lly s ma lle r in t he 2 0 0 0 s t ha n in t he 1 9 8 0 s . T he s e finding s a r e e s pe c ia lly puz z ling in lig ht o f t he r is ing he t e r o g e ne it y in w o r k e r - s pe c ific pa y pr e miums f o und in s t udie s t ha t us e ma t c he d e mplo y e r - e mplo y e e da t a ( C a r d, He ining a nd K line 2 0 1 3 , C a r d, C a r do s o a nd K line 2 0 1 3 ) . O ne po s s ible e x pla na t io n is t ha t c o mput e r c a pit a l is s ubs t it ut ing f o r la bo r hig he r up in t he s k ill dis t r ibut io n, a s a dv a nc e s in c o mput e r iz a t io n r e de fine w ha t it me a ns f o r w o r k t o be “ r o ut ine ” ( L u 2 0 1 5 ) . T his v ie w implie s t ha t po la r iz a t io n is a n int e r me dia t e pha s e , w it h t he s ha pe o f e mplo y me nt g r o w t h e v e nt ua lly lo o k ing mo r e lik e a “ do w nw a r d r a mp” ( Aut o r 1 Ac e m ogl u an d Au t or ( 2011) an d B e au d r y e t al . ( 2013) s h ow t h at s h r i n k i n g e m p l oy m e n t i n h i gh - w age oc c u p at i on s oc c u r r e d b e t w e e n 2000 an d 2007, p r e d at i n g t h e G r e at R e c e s s i on . Ac e m ogl u e t al . ( 2014) fi n d t h at i m p or t c om p e t i t i on f r om C h i n a l e d t o d e c l i n e s i n U. S . m an u f ac t u r i n g e m p l oy m e n t ov e r t h e 2000- 2007 p e r i od , w i t h s om e i n d i r e c t i m p ac t s on d ow n s t r e am i n d u s t r i e s . B e au d r y e t al . ( 2013) ar gu e t h at t h i s “gr e at r e v e r s al ” i n t h e d e m an d f or c ogn i t i v e s k i l l c an b e e x p l ai n e d as a b oom - an d - b u s t c y c l e c au s e d b y t h e p r ogr e s s of i n f or m at i on t e c h n ol ogy ( I T ) f r om ad op t i on t o m at u r at i on . 2  2 0 1 4 ) . Fig ur e 1 plo t s de c a da l c ha ng e s in e mplo y me nt g r o w t h in r o ut ine o c c upa t io ns , r a nk e d by t he ir pe r c e nt ile in t he 1 9 8 0 e duc a t io n dis t r ibut io n.2 Fig ur e 1 s ho w s c le a r ly t ha t r o ut ine j o bs a r e dis a ppe a r ing f ur t he r up t he s k ill dis t r ibu- t io n. R o ut ine e mplo y me nt s hr a nk f o r lo w - s k ille d pr o duc t io n a nd t r a de j o bs in t he 1 9 8 0 s , a nd middle - s k ille d c le r ic a l j o bs in t he 1 9 9 0 s . B e t w e e n 2 0 0 0 a nd 2 0 1 2 , e mplo y me nt in r o ut ine o c c upa t io ns de c line d a ll t he w a y up t hr o ug h t he 8 0 t h pe r c e nt ile o f t he s k ill dis t r ibut io n, a nd e v e n a bo v e t ha t j o b g r o w t h w a s muc h s lo w e r t ha n in t he 1 9 9 0 s .3 Ne w t e c hno lo g ie s s uc h a s ma c hine le a r ning ha v e dr a ma t ic a lly impr o v e d t he a bilit y o f c o mput e r s t o a ut o ma t e “ c o g nit iv e ” t a s k s , le a ding t o f e a r s t ha t t he la bo r s ha r e is in pe r ma ne nt de c line a s c o mput - e r s r e pla c e e v e n t he mo s t hig hly s k ille d w o r k e r s ( B r y nj o lf s s o n a nd M c Af e e 2 0 1 2 , Fr e y a nd O s bo r ne 2 0 1 3 , Aut o r 2 0 1 4 , K a r a ba r bo unis a nd Ne ima n 2 0 1 4 ) . I n t his pa pe r , I s ho w t ha t hig h- s k ille d, diffic ult - t o - a ut o ma t e j o bs inc r e a s ing ly r e q uir e so- cial skills . T he r e a s o n is t ha t s k ill in huma n int e r a c t io n is la r g e ly ba s e d o n t a c it k no w le dg e a nd, a s a r g ue d by Aut o r ( 2 0 1 4 ) , c o mput e r s a r e s t ill v e r y po o r s ubs t it ut e s f o r t a s k s w he r e pr o g r a mme r s do n’t k no w “ t he r ule s ” .4 Huma n int e r a c t io n r e q uir e s a c a pa c it y t ha t ps y c ho l- o g is t s c a ll “ t he o r y o f mind” - t he a bilit y t o a t t r ibut e me nt a l s t a t e s t o o t he r s ba s e d o n t he ir be ha v io r , o r mo r e c o llo q uia lly t o “ put o ne s e lf int o a no t he r ’s s ho e s ” ( P r e ma c k a nd Wo o dr uff 1 9 7 8 , B a r o n- C o he n 2 0 0 0 , C a me r e r e t a l. 2 0 0 5 ) . P r o g r e s s in a ut o ma t ing s o c ia l int e r a c t io n is be s t e x e mplifie d by t he c o nt inue d f a ilur e o f t he T ur ing t e s t , w hic h me a s ur e s a ma c hine ’s a bilit y t o imit a t e huma n c o nv e r s a t io n f o r fiv e minut e s in a hig hly c o nt r o lle d s e t t ing .5 B a s e d 2 I m e as u r e an oc c u p at i on ’ s r ou t i n e t as k i n t e n s i t y as t h e av e r age of t h e f ol l ow i n g t w o q u e s t i on s f r om t h e 1998 O c c u p at i on al I n f or m at i on Ne t w or k ( O *NE T ) - 1) “h ow au t om at e d i s t h e j ob ? ” an d 2) “h ow i m p or t an t i s r e p e at i n g t h e s am e p h y s i c al ac t i v i t i e s ( e . g. k e y e n t r y ) or m e n t al ac t i v i t i e s ( e . g. c h e c k i n g e n t r i e s i n a l e d ge r ) ov e r an d ov e r , w i t h ou t s t op p i n g, t o p e r f or m i n g t h i s j ob ? ”. S e c t i on 2 p r ov i d e s m or e d e t ai l on t h e O *NE T d at a an d t h e c on s t r u c t i on of t as k m e as u r e s b y oc c u p at i on . 3 I r e s t r i c t t h e s am p l e t o oc c u p at i on s w i t h ab ov e - m e d i an r ou t i n e t as k i n t e n s i t y b as e d on t h e 1998 O *NE T . T h e r e s u l t s ar e n ot s e n s i t i v e t o ot h e r r e as on ab l e c u t off s s u c h as t h e 66t h p e r c e n t i l e . S e e S e c t i on 2 an d t h e D at a Ap p e n d i x f or d e t ai l s on t h e c on s t r u c t i on of t h e r ou t i n e t as k m e as u r e . R ou t i n e oc c u p at i on s ab ov e t h e 75t h p e r c e n t i l e of t h e 1980 e d u c at i on d i s t r i b u t i on t h at e i t h e r l os t j ob s b e t w e e n 2000 an d 2012 or gr e w m u c h m or e s l ow l y t h an i n t h e p r e v i ou s d e c ad e i n c l u d e e n gi n e e r s , c om p u t e r s of t w ar e d e v e l op e r s , c om p u t e r s c i e n t i s t s , fi n an c i al m an age r s an d ai r l i n e p i l ot s . J ai m ov i c h an d S i u ( 2012) s h ow t h at m os t of t h e d e c l i n e i n r ou t i n e e m p l oy m e n t h as oc c u r r e d ov e r t h e l as t s e v e r al r e c e s s i on s , an d t h at d e c l i n e s i n r ou t i n e e m p l oy m e n t ar e l ar ge l y r e s p on s i b l e f or t h e r e c e n t p at t e r n of p os t - r e c e s s i on “j ob l e s s r e c ov e r i e s ”. 4 Au t or ( 2014) r e f e r s t o t h i s as “P ol y an i ’ s p ar ad ox ”, af t e r t h e p h i l os op h e r M i c h ae l P ol an y i w h o ob s e r v e d t h at “w e c an k n ow m or e t h an w e c an t e l l ”. Au t or ( 2014) al s o n ot e s t h at c om p u t e r s c i e n t i s t s r e f e r t o a s i m i l ar p h e n om e n on as “M or e v e c ’ s p ar ad ox ”. M or av e c ar gu e s t h at e v ol u t i on p l ay s an i m p or t an t r ol e i n t h e d e v e l op m e n t of t ac i t k n ow l e d ge . S k i l l s s u c h as i n t e r p e r s on al i n t e r ac t i on an d s e n s or i m ot or c oor d i n at i on , w h i l e u n c on s c i ou s an d ap p ar e n t l y e ff or t l e s s , ar e ac t u al l y t h e p r od u c t of d e s i gn i m p r ov e m e n t s an d op t i m i z at i on s ov e r m i l l i on s of y e ar s . Ab s t r ac t t h ou gh t ap p e ar s d i ffi c u l t , b u t on l y b e c au s e h u m an s h av e on l y b e e n d oi n g i t f or a f e w t h ou s an d y e ar s ( M or av e c 1988) . 5 Al an T u r i n g p r op os e d t h e f ol l ow i n g t e s t f or m ac h i n e i n t e l l i ge n c e - an i n t e r v i e w e r as k s w r i t t e n q u e s t i on s of t w o r e s p on d e n t s , an d i s gi v e n t h e t as k of d e t e r m i n i n g w h i c h r e s p on d e n t i s h u m an an d w h i c h i s a c om - p u t e r . T u r i n g p r op os e d t h at a m ac h i n e w ou l d p as s t h e t e s t on c e i t c ou l d c on v i n c e a h u m an 70 p e r c e n t of 3  o n po o r pe r f o r ma nc e in t he T ur ing t e s t a nd t he ina bilit y o f c o mput e r s t o e v e n r e c o g niz e ( muc h le s s r e plic a t e ) huma n e mo t io n, Fr e y a nd O s bo r ne ( 2 0 1 3 ) ide nt if y s o c ia l int e llig e nc e t a s k s a s a k e y bo t t le ne c k t o c o mput e r iz a t io n. I be g in by pr e s e nt ing e v ide nc e f o r t hr e e impo r t a nt f a c t s a bo ut t he U.S. la bo r ma r k e t . Fir s t , I s ho w t ha t e mplo y me nt g r o w t h in s o c ia l s k ill- int e ns iv e o c c upa t io ns ha s o c c ur r e d t hr o ug ho ut t he w a g e dis t r ibut io n, no t j us t in ma na g e me nt a nd o t he r t o p- pa y ing j o bs .6 Se c - o nd, c o ns is t e nt w it h We inbe r g e r ( 2 0 1 4 ) , I find a g r o w ing c o mple me nt a r it y be t w e e n c o g nit iv e s k ills a nd s o c ia l s k ills . Sinc e 1 9 8 0 , e mplo y me nt a nd w a g e g r o w t h ha s be e n pa r t ic ula r ly s t r o ng in o c c upa t io ns w it h hig h c o g nit iv e and s o c ia l s k ill r e q uir e me nt s . I n c o nt r a s t , e mplo y me nt ha s f a lle n in o c c upa t io ns w it h hig h ma t h but lo w s o c ia l s k ill r e q uir e me nt s , s ug g e s t ing t ha t c o g nit iv e s k ills a r e inc r e a s ing ly a ne c e s s a r y but no t s uffic ie nt c o ndit io n f o r o bt a ining a hig h- pa y ing j o b. T hir d, I s ho w t ha t me a s ur e s o f a n o c c upa t io n’s s o c ia l s k ill int e ns it y a nd it s r o ut ine ne s s a r e s t r o ng ly ne g a t iv e ly c o r r e la t e d. T o unde r s t a nd t he s e pa t t e r ns , I de v e lo p a mo de l o f t e a m pr o duc t io n w he r e w o r k e r s “ t r a de t a s k s ” t o e x plo it t he ir c o mpa r a t iv e a dv a nt a g e . Fo llo w ing e x is t ing mo de ls , t e a mw o r k inc r e a s e s pr o duc t iv it y t hr o ug h s pe c ia liz a t io n but r e q uir e s c o s t ly c o o r dina t io n ( B e c k e r a nd M ur phy 1 9 9 2 , B o lt o n a nd D e w a t r ipo nt 1 9 9 4 , L a z e a r 1 9 9 9 , G a r ic a no 2 0 0 0 , G a r ic a no a nd R o s s i- Ha ns be r g 2 0 0 4 , 2 0 0 6 , Ant r a s e t a l. 2 0 0 6 ) . Ho w e v e r , I de pa r t f r o m pr io r w o r k by t r e a t ing s o c ia l s k ills a s r e duc ing wor ker -specific c o o r dina t io n c o s t s . Wo r k e r s dr a w indiv idua l t a s k pr o duc t iv it ie s f r o m a dis t r ibut io n, a nd c o g nit iv e s k ill is t he me a n o f t he dis t r ibut io n. T hus t w o w o r k e r s w it h t he s a me c o g nit iv e s k ill diff e r in t he ir pr o duc t iv it y o v e r indiv idua l t a s k s . So c ia l s k ills a c t a s a k ind o f s o c ia l a nt i- g r a v it y , r e duc ing t he c o s t o f t a s k t r a de a nd a llo w ing w o r k e r s t o s pe c ia liz e a nd c o - pr o duc e mo r e e ffic ie nt ly . T his a ppr o a c h t a k e s o n t he s t r uc t ur e o f a R ic a r dia n t r a de mo de l, w it h w o r k e r s a s c o unt r ie s a nd s o c ia l s k ills a c t ing a s inv e r s e “ ic e be r g ” t r a de c o s t s a s in D o r nbus c h e t a l. ( 1 9 7 7 ) a nd E a t o n a nd K o r t um ( 2 0 0 2 ) .7 t h e t i m e af t e r fi v e m i n u t e s of c on v e r s at i on . S i n c e 1990, t h e Loe b n e r p r i z e h as b e e n aw ar d e d an n u al l y t o s of t w ar e p r ogr am s t h at c om e c l os e s t t o p as s i n g t h e T u r i n g t e s t . I n 2014, a “c h at b ot ” p r ogr am c al l e d E u ge n e G oos t m an c on v i n c e d 33 p e r c e n t of t h e c on t e s t ’ s j u d ge s t h at i t w as h u m an , ar gu ab l y p as s i n g t h e T u r i n g t e s t f or t h e fi r s t t i m e . How e v e r , l i k e ot h e r p r ogr am s b e f or e i t , G oos t m an p as s e d t h e T u r i n g t e s t t h r ou gh t r i c k e r y , p os i n g as a 13- y e ar - ol d Uk r ai n i an w i t h a p oor gr as p of t h e E n gl i s h l an gu age . C ogn i t i v e p s y c h ol - ogi s t G ar y M ar c u s w r i t e s i n t h e Ne w Yor k e r t h at “t h e w i n n e r s ar e n ’ t ge n u i n e l y i n t e l l i ge n t . . . I t h as t u r n e d ou t , i n f ac t , t h at t h e w i n n e r s t e n d t o u s e b l u s t e r an d m i s d i r e c t i on f ar m or e t h an an y t h i n g ap p r ox i m at i n g t r u e i n t e l l i ge n c e .” h t t p : //w w w . n e w y or k e r . c om /t e c h /e l e m e n t s /w h y - c an t - m y - c om p u t e r - u n d e r s t an d - m e , l as t ac c e s s e d J u n e 15, 2015. 6 Au t or e t al . ( 2003) s e p ar at e l y s h ow t r e n d s i n n on r ou t i n e “an al y t i c al ” an d “i n t e r p e r s on al ” t as k i n p u t s . S u b s e q u e n t w or k on r ou t i n e - b i as e d t e c h n ol ogi c al c h an ge ( R B T C ) an d j ob p ol ar i z at i on h as gr ou p e d t h e s e t w o c at e gor i e s t oge t h e r as “ab s t r ac t ” or “c ogn i t i v e ” t as k s , an d i m p l i c i t l y or e x p l i c i t l y as s u m e d t h at p r ox i e s s u c h as e d u c at i on ar e a s u ffi c i e n t s t at i s t i c f or b ot h t y p e s of s k i l l ( e . g. Ac e m ogl u an d Au t or 2011, Au t or an d D or n 2013, G oos e t al . 2014) . 7 Ac e m ogl u an d Au t or ( 2011) d e v e l op a R i c ar d i an m od e l of t h e l ab or m ar k e t w i t h t h r e e s k i l l gr ou p s , a 4  T he mo de l pr o v ide s a na t ur a l e x pla na t io n f o r t he e mpir ic a l pa t t e r ns de s c r ibe d a bo v e . Wo r k e r s o f a ll s k ill le v e ls be ne fit f r o m “ t r a ding t a s k s ” w it h e a c h o t he r t hr o ug h ho r iz o nt a l s pe c ia liz a t io n. T his c o nt r a s t s w it h t he lit e r a t ur e o n “ k no w le dg e hie r a r c hie s ” , w he r e v e r t ic a l s pe c ia liz a t io n le a ds t o le s s - s k ille d w o r k e r s f o c us ing o n r o ut ine pr o duc t io n t a s k s a nd ma na g e r s f o c us ing o n no nr o ut ine pr o ble m s o lv ing ( G a r ic a no 2 0 0 0 , G a r ic a no a nd R o s s i- Ha ns be r g 2 0 0 4 , Ant r a s e t a l. 2 0 0 6 , G a r ic a no a nd R o s s i- Ha ns be r g 2 0 0 6 ) . T he s e mo de ls e x pla in inc r e a s e s in ma na g e r ia l c o mpe ns a t io n a nd w a g e ine q ua lit y , but do no t e x pla in br o a d- ba s e d g a ins in t he la bo r ma r k e t r e t ur ns t o s o c ia l s k ills . M o r e o v e r , t r e a t ing s o c ia l s k ills a s a r e duc t io n in c o o r dina t io n c o s t s a llo w s s k ill c o mple me nt a r it y t o e me r g e na t ur a lly , be c a us e t he v a lue o f lo w e r t r a de c o s t s is inc r e a s ing in t a s k pr o duc t iv it y ( i.e . c o g nit iv e s k ill) .8 T he mo de l pr o v ide s a k e y link be t w e e n s o c ia l s k ills a nd r o ut ine t a s k int e ns it y t hr o ug h t he var iance o f t a s k pr o duc t iv it y dr a w s . O c c upa t io ns v a r y in bo t h c o g nit iv e s k ill int e ns it y a nd r o ut ine ne s s . No nr o ut ine o c c upa t io ns r e q uir e a mo r e div e r s e s e t o f t a s k s ( f o r e x a mple , c o ns ide r t he t a s k s r e q uir e d o f ma na g e me nt c o ns ult a nt s v s . c o mput e r pr o g r a mme r s ) . I n t he mo de l, t he v a r ia nc e o f t a s k pr o duc t iv it y dr a w s a c t s a s a n e la s t ic it y , inc r e a s ing t he g a ins f r o m t a s k t r a de a nd t hus t he w a g e r e t ur ns t o s o c ia l s k ills . I a m a w a r e o f o nly t w o o t he r pa pe r s t ha t s pe c ific a lly mo de l s o c ia l s k ills . I n B o r g ha ns e t a l. ( 2 0 1 4 ) , t he r e a r e “ pe o ple ” j o bs a nd “ no n- pe o ple ” j o bs a nd t he s a me f o r s k ills , w it h w o r k e r s s o r t ing int o j o bs ba s e d o n s k ills a nd r e la t iv e w a g e s .9 M c C a nn e t a l. ( 2 0 1 4 ) de v e lo p a mult i- s e c t o r ma t c hing mo de l w it h t e a ms o f w o r k e r s w ho s pe c ia liz e in pr o duc t io n t a s k s a nd a ma na g e r w ho s pe c ia liz e s c o mple t e ly in c o mmunic a t io n t a s k s .1 0 I n c o nt r a s t , t he r e a r e no c o mmunic a t io n t a s k s in my mo de l, no r a r e t he r e f o r ma l t e a ms .1 1 T his is c o ns is t e nt w it h s i n gl e s k i l l i n d e x , an d c om p ar at i v e ad v an t age f or h i gh e r - s k i l l e d w or k e r s i n r e l at i v e l y m or e c om p l e x t as k s . W h i l e t h e i r m od e l ac c om m od at e s t e c h n ol ogi c al c h an ge i n a v ar i e t y of f or m s , t h e y e x p l ai n j ob p ol ar i z at i on as a t e c h n ol ogi c al c h an ge t h at r e p l ac e s t h e t as k s p e r f or m e d b y m e d i u m - s k i l l e d w or k e r s . I n c on t r as t , t h e m od e l h e r e p os i t s t h e e x i s t e n c e of t w o t y p e s of s k i l l t h at ar e d i s t r i b u t e d ar b i t ar i l y ac r os s w or k e r s . 8 A r e l at e d l i t e r at u r e s t u d i e s j ob as s i gn m e n t w h e n w or k e r s h av e m u l t i p l e s k i l l s ( He c k m an an d S e d l ac e k 1985, He c k m an an d S c h e i n k m an 1987, G i b b on s e t al . 2005, Laz e ar 2009, S an d e r s an d T ab e r 2012, Yam agu c h i 2012, Li n d e n l au b 2014, Li s e an d P os t e l - Vi n ay 2014) . T h i s t y p e of m od e l w ou l d t r e at s oc i al s k i l l as an ot h e r ad d i t i on t o t h e s k i l l v e c t or , w i t h R oy - t y p e s e l e c t i on an d l i n e ar ( or l og- l i n e ar ) w age r e t u r n s r at h e r t h an t h e s p e c i fi c p at t e r n of c om p l e m e n t ar i t y b e t w e e n c ogn i t i v e s k i l l an d s oc i al s k i l l . 9 R e l at e d l y , B or gh an s e t al . ( 2008) d e v e l op a m od e l of “i n t e r p e r s on al s t y l e s ” w h e r e w or k e r p r od u c t i v i t y d e p e n d s on t h e e ff e c t i v e n e s s of i n t e r p e r s on al i n t e r ac t i on s , w h i c h ar e d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e w or k e r ’ s l e v e l s of c ar i n g an d d i r e c t n e s s . 1 0 I n M c C an n e t al . ( 2014) , w or k e r s c an i n v e s t i n e d u c at i on ( w h i c h i n c r e as e s t h e i r c ogn i t i v e s k i l l b u t n ot t h e i r c om m u n i c at i on s k i l l ) , an d i n d i v i d u al s w i t h h i gh c om m u n i c at i on s k i l l c an b e c om e t e ac h e r s i n t h e s c h ool or m an age r s w i t h i n a fi r m as ad u l t s . W h e n w or k e r s w h o s p e c i al i z e i n c om m u n i c at i on ( v e r t i c al s p e c i al i z at i on ) b e c om e m an age r s of a t e am , t h e c om m u n i c at i on s k i l l s of t h e ot h e r w or k e r s on t h e t e am ar e i r r e l e v an t . 1 1 M od e l s w i t h c om m u n i c at i on or “p e op l e ” t as k s f ac e t h e c h al l e n ge of s p e c i f y i n g w h at e x ac t l y i s b e i n g p r od u c e d . F or e x am p l e , i f I s p e n d al l d ay i n a m e e t i n g, am I d e v ot i n g al l of m y d ai l y e ff or t t o a c om m u n i c at i on t as k ? I n t h i s m od e l , w h i c h t r e at s c om m u n i c at i on as a f r i c t i on , gr ou p s w h o h av e l on ge r m e e t i n gs c on d i t i on al on t ot al ou t p u t h av e l ow e r av e r age s oc i al s k i l l . Ad d i t i on al l y , t h e m od e l d oe s n ot ac t u al l y i n c l u d e a r ol e f or 5  c a s e s t udie s o f mo de r n t e a mw o r k , w he r e w o r k e r s a r e o r g a niz e d int o t e mpo r a r y , fluid a nd s e lf - ma na g e d g r o ups t o pe r f o r m c us t o miz e d s e t s o f t a s k s ( e .g . L indbe c k a nd Sno w e r 2 0 0 0 , Ha c k ma n 2 0 0 2 , B a r t e l e t a l. 2 0 0 7 , E dmo nds o n 2 0 1 2 ) . T he mo de l g e ne r a t e s pr e dic t io ns a bo ut s o r t ing a nd t he r e la t iv e r e t ur ns t o s k ills a c r o s s o c c upa t io ns , w hic h I t e s t a nd c o nfir m us ing da t a f r o m t he Na t io na l L o ng it udina l Sur v e y o f Yo ut h 1 9 7 9 ( NL SY7 9 ) . I fir s t de mo ns t r a t e t ha t t he r e is a po s it iv e r e t ur n t o s o c ia l s k ills in t he la bo r ma r k e t t ha t is r o bus t t o a v a r ie t y o f c o nt r o ls , inc luding w ide ly us e d me a s ur e s o f c o g nit iv e a nd no n- c o g nit iv e s k ill, y e a r s o f e duc a t io n, a nd o c c upa t io n a nd indus t r y fix e d e ff e c t s . Simila r t o K r ue g e r a nd Sc hk a de ( 2 0 0 8 ) , I find t ha t w o r k e r s w it h hig he r s o c ia l s k ills s o r t int o s o c ia l s k ill- int e ns iv e o c c upa t io ns a nd int o no nr o ut ine o c c upa t io ns .1 2 I a ls o find t ha t t he r e t ur ns t o s o c ia l s k ills a nd s k ill c o mple me nt a r it y a r e hig he r in t he s e o c c upa t io ns e v e n a f t e r c o nt r o lling f o r a v a r ie t y o f o c c upa t io n a nd indus t r y c ha r a c t e r is t ic s a s w e ll a s w o r k e r fix e d e ff e c t s .1 3 I r e la t e t he g r o w ing impo r t a nc e o f s o c ia l s k ills t o a dv a nc e s in inf o r ma t io n a nd c o mmu- nic a t io n t e c hno lo g y ( I C T ) t ha t ha v e s hif t e d t he o r g a niz a t io n o f w o r k t o w a r d fle x ible a nd s e lf - ma na g e d t e a m s t r uc t ur e s , j o b r o t a t io n a nd w o r k e r mult it a s k ing ( B r e s na ha n 1 9 9 9 , L ind- be c k a nd Sno w e r 2 0 0 0 , C a r o li a nd Va n R e e ne n 2 0 0 1 , B r e s na ha n e t a l. 2 0 0 2 , D e s s e in a nd Sa nt o s 2 0 0 6 , B a r t e l e t a l. 2 0 0 7 , L a z e a r a nd Sha w 2 0 0 7 , B lo o m a nd Va n R e e ne n 2 0 1 1 ) . I n t he mo de l, hig he r - s k ille d w o r k e r s “ c r o w d o ut ” lo w e r - s k ille d w o r k e r s r e la t iv e ly mo r e in r o u- t ine o c c upa t io ns . C o ns ide r ing c o mput e r c a pit a l a s a f a c t o r o f pr o duc t io n, a n inc r e a s e in c o mput ing po w e r ( i.e . t he c o g nit iv e s k ill o f ma c hine s ) lo w e r s t he r e la t iv e r e t ur n t o r o ut ine o c c upa t io ns , w hic h s hif t s w o r k e r s int o no nr o ut ine o c c upa t io ns t ha t r e q uir e fle x ibilit y a nd huma n int e r a c t io n. T his is c o ns is t e nt w it h c a s e s t udy e v ide nc e f r o m t he lit e r a t ur e o n I C T a nd o r g a niz a t io na l c ha ng e s w it hin t he fir m ( C a r o li a nd Va n R e e ne n 2 0 0 1 , Aut o r e t a l. 2 0 0 2 , B r e s na ha n e t a l. 2 0 0 2 , B a r t e l e t a l. 2 0 0 7 ) . Fina lly , I s ho w t ha t t he e c o no my - w ide s hif t t o w a r d s o c ia l s k ill- int e ns iv e o c c upa t io ns ha s o c c ur r e d dis pr o po r t io na t e ly a mo ng w o me n r a t he r t ha n me n. T his is c o ns is t e nt w it h a la r g e c oh e s i v e t e am s t h at p r od u c e i n d e p e n d e n t l y - r at h e r , w or k e r s t r ad e m or e or l e s s w i t h e ac h ot h e r . 1 2 K r u e ge r an d S c h k ad e ( 2008) s h ow t h at gr e gar i ou s w or k e r s s or t i n t o j ob s t h at i n v ol v e m or e s oc i al i n - t e r ac t i on . T h e y i n t e r p r e t t h i s as a c om p e n s at i n g d i ff e r e n t i al , s u gge s t i n g t h at w or k e r s h av e p r e f e r e n c e s f or i n t e r ac t i v e w or k . How e v e r , t h i s d oe s n ot e x p l ai n w h y fi r m s w ou l d b e w i l l i n g t o p ay m or e f or a w or k e r w i t h h i gh e r s oc i al s k i l l s . I f s k i l l i n s oc i al i n t e r ac t i on h ad n o v al u e i n t h e l ab or m ar k e t b u t i n t e r ac t i v e j ob s w e r e p r e f e r r e d b y w or k e r s , c om p e n s at i n g d i ff e r e n t i al s i m p l y t h at i n t e r ac t i v e j ob s s h ou l d p ay l es s al l e l s e e q u al . 1 3 O n e p os s i b l e e x p l an at i on f or t h e p os i t i v e l ab or m ar k e t r e t u r n t o s oc i al s k i l l s i s t h at w or k e r s w i t h h i gh s oc i al s k i l l s ar e ab l e t o e x t r ac t gr e at e r r e n t s w h e n n e got i at i n g f or w age i n c r e as e s . T h i s w ou l d al s o b e c on s i s t e n t w i t h t h e l ar ge e s t ab l i s h m e n t - l e v e l w age p r e m i a f ou n d i n C ar d , He i n i n g an d K l i n e ( 2013) an d C ar d , C ar d os o an d K l i n e ( 2013) . How e v e r , r e n t e x t r ac t i on w ou l d n ot e x p l ai n t h e fi n d i n g of r e l at i v e l y l ar ge r r e t u r n s t o s oc i al s k i l l s i n n on r ou t i n e oc c u p at i on s . 6  lit e r a t ur e s ho w ing s e x diff e r e nc e s in s o c ia l pe r c e pt iv e ne s s a nd t he a bilit y t o w o r k w it h o t he r s ( Ha ll 1 9 7 8 , C o nne lla n e t a l. 2 0 0 0 , Wo o lle y e t a l. 2 0 1 0 , K ir k la nd e t a l. 2 0 1 3 ) . Ar e s o c ia l s k ills dis t inc t f r o m c o g nit iv e s k ills , o r a r e t he y s imply a no t he r me a s ur e o f t he s a me unde r ly ing a bilit y ? Whe n s ur v e y e d, e mplo y e r s r o ut ine ly lis t t e a mw o r k , c o lla bo r a t io n a nd o r a l c o mmunic a t io n s k ills a s a mo ng t he mo s t v a lua ble y e t ha r d- t o - find q ua lit ie s o f w o r k - e r s ( e .g . C a s ne r - L o t t o a nd B a r r ing t o n 2 0 0 6 , Je r a ld 2 0 0 9 ) .1 4 I n 2 0 1 5 , e mplo y e r s s ur v e y e d by t he Na t io na l As s o c ia t io n o f C o lle g e s a nd E mplo y e r s ( NAC E ) lis t e d “ a bilit y t o w o r k in a t e a m” a s t he mo s t de s ir a ble a t t r ibut e o f ne w c o lle g e g r a dua t e s , a he a d o f pr o ble m- s o lv ing a nd a na ly t ic a l/ q ua nt it a t iv e s k ills ( NAC E 2 0 1 5 ) . T e s t s o f e mo t io na l int e llig e nc e a nd s o c ia l int e llig e nc e ha v e be e n f o r ma lly de v e lo pe d a nd ps y c ho me t r ic a lly v a lida t e d by ps y c ho lo g is t s ( Sa lo v e y a nd M a y e r 1 9 9 0 , M a y e r e t a l. 1 9 9 9 , B a r o n- C o he n e t a l. 2 0 0 1 , G o le ma n 2 0 0 6 ) . Wo o lle y e t a l. ( 2 0 1 0 ) s ho w t ha t a t e s t de s ig ne d t o me a s ur e s o c ia l int e llig e nc e pr e dic t s t e a m pr o duc t iv it y e v e n a f t e r c o nt r o lling f o r t he a v e r a g e int e llig e nc e o f t e a m me mbe r s .1 5 A g r o w ing bo dy o f w o r k in e c o no mic s do c ume nt s t he la bo r ma r k e t r e t ur n t o “ no nc o g ni- t iv e ” s k ills , inc luding s o c ia l s k ills a nd le a de r s hip s k ills ( K uhn a nd We inbe r g e r 2 0 0 5 , He c k ma n e t a l. 2 0 0 6 , L indq v is t a nd Ve s t ma n 2 0 1 1 , He c k ma n a nd K a ut z 2 0 1 2 , B o r g ha ns e t a l. 2 0 1 4 , We inbe r g e r 2 0 1 4 ) .1 6 T his pa pe r builds o n t he s e mina l o bs e r v a t io n o f He c k ma n ( 1 9 9 5 ) t ha t e a r ning s a r e lik e ly influe nc e d by mult iple dime ns io ns o f s k ill, s inc e me a s ur e d c o g nit iv e a bil- it y ( i.e . g ) e x pla ins o nly a s ma ll f r a c t io n o f t he v a r ia t io n in a dult w a g e s . Subs e q ue nt w o r k , s umma r iz e d in He c k ma n a nd K a ut z ( 2 0 1 2 ) , finds t ha t “ no nc o g nit iv e ” o r “ s o f t ” s k ills e x pla in 1 4 I n a 2006 s u r v e y of 431 l ar ge e m p l oy e r s , t h e fi v e m os t i m p or t an t s k i l l s f or f ou r - y e ar c ol l e ge gr ad u at e s ( r an k e d i n or d e r ) w e r e 1) or al c om m u n i c at i on s ; 2) t e am w or k /c ol l ab or at i on ; 3) p r of e s s i on al i s m /w or k e t h i c ; 4) w r i t t e n c om m u n i c at i on s ; 5) c r i t i c al t h i n k i n g/p r ob l e m s ol v i n g. F or h i gh s c h ool gr ad u at e s an d t w o- y e ar c ol l e ge gr ad u at e s , p r of e s s i on al i s m /w or k e t h i c w as l i s t e d as m os t i m p or t an t f ol l ow e d b y t e am w or k /c ol l ab or at i on an d or al c om m u n i c at i on s , w i t h c r i t i c al t h i n k i n g/p r ob l e m s ol v i n g l i s t e d 7t h . 1 5 W ool l e y e t al . ( 2010) r an d om l y as s i gn i n d i v i d u al s t o gr ou p s an d t h e n as k t h e gr ou p s t o p e r f or m a v ar i e t y of t as k s . G r ou p p e r f or m an c e i s p os i t i v e l y c or r e l at e d w i t h c on v e r s at i on al t u r n - t ak i n g, t h e s h ar e of gr ou p m e m b e r s w h o ar e f e m al e , an d a m e as u r e of t h e “av e r age s oc i al s e n s i t i v i t y ” of gr ou p m e m b e r s as m e as u r e d b y a t e s t c al l e d “R e ad i n g t h e M i n d i n t h e E y e s ”. T h i s t e s t w as or i gi n al l y d e v e l op e d t o as s i s t i n t h e d i agn os i s of Au t i s m an d As p e r ge r S y n d r om e , b u t h as s i n c e b e e n d e m on s t r at e d as p s y c h om e t r i c al l y v al i d an d ab l e t o d e t e c t s u b t l e d i ff e r e n c e s i n i n d i v i d u al s oc i al s e n s i t i v i t y ( e . g. B ar on - C oh e n e t al . 2001) . 1 6 K u h n an d W e i n b e r ge r ( 2005) fi n d t h at m e n w h o oc c u p i e d l e ad e r s h i p p os i t i on s i n h i gh s c h ool h ad h i gh e r e ar n i n gs as ad u l t s , e v e n af t e r c on t r ol l i n g f or c ogn i t i v e s k i l l an d a w i d e v ar i e t y of ot h e r c ov ar i at e s . Us i n g m or e r e c e n t d at a f r om m u l t i p l e c oh or t s , W e i n b e r ge r ( 2014) fi n d s an i n c r e as e i n t h e r e t u r n t o s oc i al s k i l l s ov e r t i m e , as w e l l as an i n c r e as e i n t h e c om p l e m e n t ar i t y b e t w e e n c ogn i t i v e s k i l l s an d s oc i al s k i l l s . Li n d q v i s t an d Ve s t m an ( 2011) fi n d t h at S w e d i s h m e n w h o s c or e d h i gh e r on an i n t e r v i e w , w h i c h w as d e s i gn e d t o m e as u r e ( am on g ot h e r t h i n gs ) s oc i al s k i l l s an d t h e ab i l i t y t o w or k i n a t e am , h ad h i gh e r e ar n i n gs l at e r i n l i f e e v e n af t e r c on d i t i on i n g on c ogn i t i v e s k i l l . Li k e W e i n b e r ge r ( 2014) , t h e y al s o f ou n d t h at c ogn i t i v e s k i l l an d s oc i al s k i l l ar e c om p l e m e n t s i n t h e e ar n i n gs r e gr e s s i on . B or gh an s e t al . ( 2014) d oc u m e n t a gr ow i n g l ab or m ar k e t r e t u r n t o j ob s t h at r e q u i r e m or e “p e op l e t as k s ” an d d oc u m e n t s e l f - s e l e c t i on of s oc i ab l e w or k e r s i n t o t h e s e j ob s . 7  impo r t a nt v a r ia t io n in a dult o ut c o me s . T his pa pe r s ho uld be v ie w e d a s a n a t t e mpt t o e x t e nd a nd f o r ma liz e t he de finit io n o f o ne pa r t ic ula r dime ns io n o f “ s o f t ” s k ills - t he a bilit y t o w o r k w it h o t he r s . T he r e ma inde r o f t he pa pe r pr o c e e ds a s f o llo w s . Se c t io n 2 pr e s e nt s e v ide nc e f o r t hr e e k e y f a c t s a bo ut t he g r o w ing impo r t a nc e o f s o c ia l s k ills in t he la bo r ma r k e t . Se c t io n 3 pr e s e nt s t he mo de l, fir s t w it h a s imple t w o - w o r k e r a nd t w o - t a s k c a s e t o build int uit io n, a nd t he n w it h ma ny w o r k e r s , a c o nt inuum o f t a s k s a nd a c ha r a c t e r iz a t io n o f e q uilibr ium pr o duc t io n a nd w a g e s . Se c t io n 4 de s c r ibe s t he da t a . Se c t io n 5 pr e s e nt s t he e mpir ic a l mo de ls a nd r e s ult s . Se c t io n 6 dis c us s t w o ma in implic a t io ns o f t he finding s - t he impo r t a nc e o f c a pit a l- la bo r s ubs t it ut io n a nd s k ill c o mple me nt a r it y , a nd t he g r o w ing f e ma le a dv a nt a g e in la bo r ma r k e t o ut c o me s . Se c t io n 7 c o nc lude s . 2 So ci a l Sk i l l s i n t he L a bo r M a r k e t I s t udy c ha ng e s in t he t he t a s k c o nt e nt o f w o r k us ing da t a f r o m t he O c c upa t io na l I nf o r ma t io n Ne t w o r k ( O * NE T ) . O * NE T is a s ur v e y a dminis t e r e d by t he U.S. D e pa r t me nt o f L a bo r t o a r a ndo m s a mple o f U.S. w o r k e r s in e a c h o c c upa t io n. T he O * NE T s ur v e y be g a n in 1 9 9 8 a nd is upda t e d pe r io dic a lly . I us e t he 1 9 9 8 O * NE T t o mo s t a c c ur a t e ly r e fle c t t he t a s k c o nt e nt o f o c c upa t io ns in e a r lie r y e a r s , a lt ho ug h r e s ult s w it h la t e r v e r s io ns o f O * NE T a r e g e ne r a lly s imila r . T he O * NE T s ur v e y a s k s ma ny diff e r e nt q ue s t io ns a bo ut t he a bilit ie s a nd s k ills , k no w le dg e a nd w o r k a c t iv it ie s r e q uir e d in a n o c c upa t io n. T he q ue s t io ns a r e r a t e d o n a n o r dina l s c a le , w it h s pe c ific e x a mple s t ha t illus t r a t e t he v a lue o f e a c h numbe r t o he lp w o r k e r s a ns w e r t he q ue s t io n a c c ur a t e ly . B e c a us e t he s c a le v a lue s ha v e no na t ur a l c a r dina l me a ning , I f o llo w Aut o r e t a l. ( 2 0 0 3 ) a nd c o nv e r t a v e r a g e s c o r e s by o c c upa t io n o n O * NE T q ue s t io ns t o a 0 - 1 0 s c a le t ha t r e fle c t s t he ir w e ig ht e d pe r c e nt ile r a nk in t he 1 9 8 0 dis t r ibut io n o f t a s k input s . Aut o r a nd D o r n ( 2 0 1 3 ) c r e a t e a ba la nc e d a nd c o ns is t e nt pa ne l o f o c c upa t io n c o de s t ha t c o v e r t he 1 9 8 0 C e ns us t hr o ug h t he 2 0 0 5 Ame r ic a n C o mmunit y Sur v e y ( AC S) . I e x t e nd t he ir a ppr o a c h t hr o ug h 2 0 1 2 , upda t ing t he o c c upa t io n c r o s s w a lk t o r e fle c t c ha ng e s ma de in 2 0 1 0 a nd ma k ing a f e w mino r e dit s f o r c o ns is t e nc y - s e e t he D a t a Appe ndix f o r de t a ils . I f o c us o n c ha ng e s in f o ur k e y indic a t o r s o f t he t a s k c o nt e nt o f w o r k . Fir s t , I me a s ur e a n o c c upa t io n’s r outine t a s k int e ns it y a s t he a v e r a g e o f t he f o llo w ing t w o q ue s t io ns - 1 ) “ ho w a ut o ma t e d is t he j o b? ” a nd 2 ) “ ho w impo r t a nt is r e pe a t ing t he s a me phy s ic a l a c t iv it ie s ( e .g . k e y e nt r y ) o r me nt a l a c t iv it ie s ( e .g . c he c k ing e nt r ie s in a le dg e r ) o v e r a nd o v e r , w it ho ut s t o pping , t o pe r f o r ming t his j o b? ” 1 7 Se c o nd, I c lo s e ly f o llo w Aut o r e t a l. ( 2 0 0 3 ) a nd de fine 1 7 T h i s d e fi n i t i on of r ou t i n e n e s s d i ff e r s f r om t h e t as k m e as u r e s u s e d b y Au t or e t al . ( 2003) , w h o u s e t h e 1977 8  nonr outine analytical t a s k int e ns it y a s t he a v e r a g e o f t hr e e O * NE T v a r ia ble s t ha t c a pt ur e a n o c c upa t io n’s ma t he ma t ic a l r e a s o ning r e q uir e me nt s .1 8 T hir d, I de fine a n o c c upa t io n’s social skill int e ns it y a s t he a v e r a g e o f f o ur O * NE T s k ill me a s ur e s : 1 ) C o o r dina t io n; 2 ) Ne g o t ia t io n; 3 ) P e r s ua s io n; 4 ) So c ia l P e r c e pt iv e ne s s .1 9 Fo ur t h, I de fine a n o c c upa t io n’s ser vice t a s k int e ns it y a s t he a v e r a g e o f t w o O * NE T t a s k me a s ur e s ; 1 ) a s s is t ing a nd c a r ing f o r o t he r s ; 2 ) s e r v ic e o r ie nt a t io n. While s e r v ic e t a s k s a nd s o c ia l s k ill t a s k s bo t h r e q uir e huma n int e r a c t io n, t he y a r e impo r - t a nt f o r diff e r e nt t y pe s o f j o bs . Fig ur e 2 s ho w s t his by plo t t ing s mo o t he d lo c a lly w e ig ht e d r e g r e s s io ns o f O * NE T o c c upa t io na l t a s k int e ns it ie s a g a ins t t ha t o c c upa t io n’s pe r c e nt ile in t he 1 9 8 0 w a g e dis t r ibut io n. Se r v ic e t a s k s a r e t y pic a lly o r ie nt e d a r o und c us t o me r s e r v ic e , a nd a r e c o nc e nt r a t e d in t he lo w e s t t hr e e de c ile s o f t he w a g e dis t r ibut io n. I n c o nt r a s t , j o bs t ha t r e q uir e s o c ia l s k ills e mpha s iz e huma n int e r a c t io n in pr oduction, a nd a r e r e la t iv e ly hig h- pa y ing a nd c o g nit iv e s k ill- int e ns iv e . T his dis t inc t io n is la r g e ly mis s ing f r o m pr io r w o r k o n “ pe o ple ” j o bs , w hic h t y pic a lly t r e a t s huma n int e r a c t io n a s a s ing le t y pe o f t a s k ( B o r g ha ns e t a l. 2 0 1 4 , M c C a nn e t a l. 2 0 1 4 , L is e a nd P o s t e l- Vina y 2 0 1 4 ) . Fig ur e 3 de mo ns t r a t e s t he g r o w ing impo r t a nc e o f s o c ia l s k ills by r e plic a t ing Fig ur e I o f Aut o r e t a l. ( 2 0 0 3 ) f o r t he 1 9 8 0 - 2 0 1 2 pe r io d us ing t he f o ur k e y O * NE T t a s k me a s ur e s de s c r ibe d a bo v e .2 0 B y c o ns t r uc t io n, e a c h t a s k v a r ia ble ha s a me a n o f 5 0 “ c e nt ile s ” in 1 9 8 0 . T hus s ubs e q ue nt mo v e me nt s ho uld be int e r pr e t e d a s c ha ng e s in t he e mplo y me nt - w e ig ht e d me a n o f e a c h t a s k r e la t iv e t o it s impo r t a nc e in 1 9 8 0 . T he da t a a r e a g g r e g a t e d t o t he indus t r y - e duc a t io n- s e x le v e l, w hic h implic it ly c o nt r o ls f o r c ha ng e s in t a s k input s t ha t a r e due t o c ha ng e s in in t he indus t r y a nd s k ill mix o f t he U.S. e c o no my o v e r t ime . T he r e is no a dding - up c o ns t r a int f o r t a s k s in a g iv e n y e a r , a nd s o c ha ng e s o v e r t ime c a n a ls o r e fle c t c ha ng e s in t o t a l la bo r s upply . L ik e Aut o r a nd P r ic e ( 2 0 1 3 ) , I find t ha t t he la bo r input o f r o ut ine t a s k s ha s c o nt inue d t o de c line , a nd t ha t no nr o ut ine a na ly t ic a l ( ma t h) t a s k input s s t o ppe d g r o w ing a nd e v e n D i c t i on ar y of O c c u p at i on al T i t l e s ( D O T ) m e as u r e s “s e t l i m i t s , t ol e r an c e s or s t an d ar d s ” ( S T S ) an d “fi n ge r d e x t e r i t y ” ( F I NG E R ) . T h e y c al l t h e s e t as k m e as u r e s “r ou t i n e c ogn i t i v e ” an d “r ou t i n e m an u al ” r e s p e c t i v e l y . Au t or an d D or n ( 2013) an d ot h e r s u b s e q u e n t w or k c om b i n e t h e s e t w o m e as u r e s i n t o an i n d e x of r ou t i n e t as k i n t e n s i t y ( R T I ) . O c c u p at i on s t h at ar e at l e as t 50 p e r c e n t i l e s h i gh e r on t h e R T I m e as u r e c om p ar e d t o m y O *NE T - b as e d m e as u r e i n c l u d e t e l e c om an d l i n e i n s t al l e r s , m as on s , t i l e r s an d c ar p e t i n s t al l e r s , p h ar m ac i s t s , an d d e n t al as s i s t an t s . O c c u p at i on s t h at r an k as m u c h m or e r ou t i n e ac c or d i n g t o t h e O *NE T m e as u r e i n c l u d e t ax i d r i v e r s an d c h au ff e u r s , b u s d r i v e r s , gar b age c ol l e c t or s an d c om p u t e r s c i e n t i s t s . 1 8 T h e t h r e e O *NE T v ar i ab l e s ar e 1) t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h an oc c u p at i on r e q u i r e s m at h e m at i c al r e as on i n g; 2) w h e t h e r t h e oc c u p at i on r e q u i r e s u s i n g m at h e m at i c s t o s ol v e p r ob l e m s ; an d 3) w h e t h e r t h e oc c u p at i on r e q u i r e s k n ow l e d ge of m at h e m at i c s . S e e t h e D at a Ap p e n d i x f or d e t ai l s . 1 9 Ap p e n d i x F i gu r e A1 d e m on s t r at e s t h at m y p r e f e r r e d m e as u r e of S oc i al S k i l l s i s s t r on gl y c or r e l at e d w i t h ot h e r s i m i l ar O *NE T v ar i ab l e s t h at c ap t u r e c oor d i n at i on , i n t e r ac t i on an d t e am p r od u c t i on . S e e t h e D at a Ap p e n d i x f or d e t ai l s . 2 0 M an y t h an k s t o D av i d Au t or an d B r e n d an P r i c e f or ge n e r ou s l y s h ar i n g t h e i r d at a an d p r ogr am s . 9  de c line d mo de s t ly a f t e r 2 0 0 0 . Ho w e v e r , s o c ia l s k ill t a s k input s g r e w by 2 4 pe r c e nt f r o m 1 9 8 0 t o 2 0 1 2 , c o mpa r e d t o o nly a bo ut 1 1 pe r c e nt f o r no nr o ut ine a na ly t ic a l t a s k s . M o r e o v e r , w hile no nr o ut ine a na ly t ic a l t a s k input s ha v e de c line d s inc e 2 0 0 0 , t he impo r t a nc e o f s o c ia l s k ills he ld s t e a dy ( g r o w ing by a bo ut 2 pe r c e nt ) t hr o ug h t he 2 0 0 0 s . Se r v ic e t a s k input s g r e w by a bo ut 2 3 pe r c e nt o v e r t he 1 9 8 0 - 2 0 1 2 pe r io d, c o ns is t e nt w it h Aut o r a nd D o r n ( 2 0 1 3 ) . O * NE T is t he s uc c e s s o r o f t he D ic t io na r y o f O c c upa t io na l T it le s ( D O T ) , w hic h w a s us e d by Aut o r e t a l. ( 2 0 0 3 ) a nd ma ny o t he r s t o s t udy t he c ha ng ing t a s k c o nt e nt o f w o r k . Appe ndix Fig ur e A2 s ho w s t ha t t he t w o da t a s o ur c e s y ie ld e x t r e me ly s imila r r e s ult s f o r a na lo g o us t a s k me a s ur e s . I us e t he O * NE T in t his pa pe r be c a us e it is a mo r e r e c e nt da t a s o ur c e t ha t is upda t e d r e g ula r ly , a nd be c a us e it c o nt a ins ma ny mo r e me a s ur e s o f t he t a s k c o nt e nt o f w o r k t ha n t he D O T . B e c a us e t he t a s k me a s ur e s in Fig ur e 3 a r e a ddit iv e , t he y ma y ma s k c ha ng e s o v e r t ime in t he bundles o f t a s k s de ma nde d by e mplo y e r s . Fig ur e 4 plo t s s mo o t he d c ha ng e s in e mplo y - me nt s ha r e s by o c c upa t io n be t w e e n 1 9 8 0 a nd 2 0 1 2 a g a ins t e a c h o c c upa t io n’s pe r c e nt ile in t he 1 9 8 0 w a g e dis t r ibut io n. I div ide o c c upa t io ns int o f o ur mut ua lly e x c lus iv e c a t e g o r ie s ba s e d o n w he t he r t he y a r e a bo v e o r be lo w t he me dia n pe r c e nt ile in bo t h no nr o ut ine a na ly t ic a l ( ma t h) a nd s o c ia l s k ill t a s k int e ns it y . T his c o mpa r e s e mplo y me nt g r o w t h a c r o s s o c c upa t io ns t ha t r e q uir e hig h ma t h s k ills , hig h s o c ia l s k ills , bo t h o r ne it he r . T he r e s ult s in Fig ur e 4 a r e s t r ik ing . Sinc e 1 9 8 0 , o c c upa t io ns w it h hig h ma t h and hig h s o c ia l s k ill r e q uir e me nt s ha v e g r o w n r o bus t ly t hr o ug ho ut t he w a g e dis t r ibut io n. Jo bs w it h hig h s o c ia l s k ill a nd lo w ma t h r e q uir e me nt s ha v e a ls o g r o w n, a lt ho ug h t he y a r e mo s t ly c o n- c e nt r a t e d in t he bo t t o m t w o - t hir ds o f t he w a g e dis t r ibut io n. T he w o r s t pe r f o r ma nc e in t e r ms o f e mplo y me nt g r o w t h c o me s f r o m j o bs w it h hig h ma t h but lo w s o c ia l s k ill r e q uir e me nt s . E mplo y me nt s ha r e s de c line d f o r a ll but t he v e r y hig he s t - pa y ing j o bs in t his c a t e g o r y .2 1 T he r e s ult s a r e a ls o r o bus t t o c ho o s ing c ut o ff s o t he r t ha n t he 5 0 t h pe r c e nt ile f o r e a c h t y pe o f t a s k . Fig ur e 5 pr e s e nt s c ha ng e s in infla t io n- a dj us t e d me dia n lo g ho ur ly w a g e s f o r o c c upa t io ns a c c o r ding t o t he ir ma t h a nd s o c ia l s k ill t a s k int e ns it ie s . Wit h o nly a f e w e x c e pt io ns , r e a l w a g e g r o w t h s inc e 1 9 8 0 ha s be e n g r e a t e s t in o c c upa t io ns t ha t r e q uir e w o r k e r s t o ha v e bo t h ma t h s k ills a nd s o c ia l s k ills . Wa g e g r o w t h f o r j o bs w it h hig h ma t h a nd lo w s o c ia l s k ill r e q uir e me nt s ha s be e n po s it iv e but r e la t iv e ly mo de s t . Fina lly , r e a l w a g e s ha v e de c line d f o r ne a r ly a ll j o bs t ha t a r e be lo w t he me dia n in bo t h ma t h s k ills a nd s o c ia l s k ills . T a k e n 2 1 S om e e x am p l e s of h i gh - p ay i n g oc c u p at i on s ( i . e . ab ov e t h e 60t h p e r c e n t i l e ) w i t h h i gh m at h an d l ow s oc i al s k i l l t as k i n t e n s i t y i n c l u d e ac t u ar i e s , m at h e m at i c i an s an d s t at i s t i c i an s , e n gi n e e r i n g an d c h e m i c al t e c h - n i c i an s , an d m ac h i n i s t s . S om e e x am p l e s of h i gh - p ay i n g oc c u p at i on s w i t h l ow m at h an d h i gh s oc i al s k i l l t as k i n t e n s i t y i n c l u d e d e n t i s t s , ai r t r affi c c on t r ol l e r s , l aw y e r s , ac t or s /d i r e c t or s /p r od u c e r s , e d i t or s an d r e p or t e r s , an d p h y s i c al t h e r ap i s t s . 1 0  t o g e t he r , t he e v ide nc e in Fig ur e s 4 a nd 5 s t r o ng ly s ug g e s t s t ha t t he de ma nd f o r s o c ia l s k ills ha s g r o w n in o c c upa t io ns t hr o ug ho ut t he w a g e dis t r ibut io n, pa r t ic ula r ly f o r j o bs t ha t a ls o ha v e hig h c o g nit iv e s k ill r e q uir e me nt s . Appe ndix Fig ur e s A3 a nd A4 ho ne in o n r e c e nt t r e nds in t he la bo r ma r k e t by pr e s e nt ing a na lo g o us r e s ult s w it h 2 0 0 0 a s t he ba s e y e a r . T he r e s ult s a r e q ua lit a t iv e ly v e r y s imila r . As no t e d e ls e w he r e , j o b g r o w t h w a s s t r o ng e s t a t t he bo t t o m o f t he w a g e dis t r ibut io n. Ho w e v e r , a mo ng o c c upa t io ns pa y ing a bo v e me dia n w a g e s , t he o nly ne t j o b g r o w t h be t w e e n 2 0 0 0 a nd 2 0 1 2...